Possible yumako tree seed rate issue

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Broken_splitter
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Possible yumako tree seed rate issue

Post by Broken_splitter »

Hi there!
So, I played Gleba yesterday and discovered that Yumako seeds rarely drop from the fruits (Yumako processing recipe).
At 2% rate - should be minimum 1 seed per 50 fruits, but in reality it's a bit rarer ( <2% or something like this).
The only way to prevent the plantation from slowly depleting is to periodical add new trees (from wild yumako fruits).
Could you please check am I wrong or just skill issue
Last edited by Broken_splitter on Thu Feb 13, 2025 11:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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NineNine
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Re: [2.0.32] Possible yumako tree seed rate issue

Post by NineNine »

2% rate means 2% *on average* over the long term. You just have gotten unlucky in the short term.

So yes, you'll see that 2% on average means that sometimes (in the short term) you get more than 2%, and sometimes you get less. To prevent the possibility of running out altogether, there's a much simpler method than adding more trees....
Last edited by NineNine on Thu Feb 13, 2025 1:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Nemoricus
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Re: [2.0.32] Possible yumako tree seed rate issue

Post by Nemoricus »

You also need to make sure that none of your fruits are spoiling before getting processed.
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Re: [2.0.32] Possible yumako tree seed rate issue

Post by Broken_splitter »

Nemoricus wrote: Thu Feb 13, 2025 1:05 pm You also need to make sure that none of your fruits are spoiling before getting processed.
0 spoiled fuits in few hours
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Re: [2.0.32] Possible yumako tree seed rate issue

Post by Broken_splitter »

NineNine wrote: Thu Feb 13, 2025 12:47 pm 2% rate means 2% *on average* over the long term. You just have gotten unlucky in the short term.

So yes, you'll see that 2% on average means that sometimes (in the short term) you get more than 2%, and sometimes you get less. To prevent the possibility of running out altogether, there's a much simpler method than adding more trees....
Could you please convert "short term" in hours.
Plantation constantly depleted in "average & long term"
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Re: [2.0.32] Possible yumako tree seed rate issue

Post by NineNine »

Broken_splitter wrote: Thu Feb 13, 2025 1:16 pm
NineNine wrote: Thu Feb 13, 2025 12:47 pm 2% rate means 2% *on average* over the long term. You just have gotten unlucky in the short term.

So yes, you'll see that 2% on average means that sometimes (in the short term) you get more than 2%, and sometimes you get less. To prevent the possibility of running out altogether, there's a much simpler method than adding more trees....
Could you please convert "short term" in hours.
Plantation constantly depleted in "average & long term"
It's a random number generator that produces the 2%. So, unfortunately, nobody can determine exactly what "long term" is. And, it wouldn't be defined in time, but number of fruits processed. The more fruits you process, the closer that number will get to 2%. If you only have a few trees, then yes, it's entirely possible to run out of seeds if you get unlucky. But like I said, there's a very simple way of pushing that 2% chance higher to make it even more unlikely that you will run out of seeds.....
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Re: [2.0.32] Possible yumako tree seed rate issue

Post by Broken_splitter »

NineNine wrote: Thu Feb 13, 2025 1:24 pm ...
The more fruits you process, the closer that number will get to 2%
...
You don't look like a developer and are just trying to guess what's going on.
Well then try to guess why the same thing doesn't happen with Jellynut
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Re: [2.0.32] Possible yumako tree seed rate issue

Post by NineNine »

Broken_splitter wrote: Thu Feb 13, 2025 1:37 pm
NineNine wrote: Thu Feb 13, 2025 1:24 pm ...
The more fruits you process, the closer that number will get to 2%
...
You don't look like a developer and are just trying to guess what's going on.
Well then try to guess why the same thing doesn't happen with Jellynut
I used to be a software developer.
I understand basic statistics.
Both fruits work exactly the same way.
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Nemoricus
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Re: [2.0.32] Possible yumako tree seed rate issue

Post by Nemoricus »

To make things as clear as possible, while 2% per fruit is theoretically break even, since it’s a probability you’re essentially guaranteed to hit 0 seeds.

To make this much less likely, you need to boost the seed chance with productivity.

That jellynuts haven’t had a problem so far is most likely just chance.
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Re: [2.0.32] Possible yumako tree seed rate issue

Post by Broken_splitter »

NineNine wrote: Thu Feb 13, 2025 1:41 pm I used to be a software developer.
I understand basic statistics.
Both fruits work exactly the same way.
My observations suggest otherwise.
Recipe does not contains words like "average", "approximately", "maybe" or something like this, 2% rate means exactly 1 seed per 50 fruits
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Re: [2.0.32] Possible yumako tree seed rate issue

Post by Nemoricus »

Broken_splitter wrote: My observations suggest otherwise.
Recipe does not contains words like "average", "approximately", "maybe" or something like this, 2% rate means exactly 1 seed per 50 fruits
No, it means that, every time the recipe runs, it has a 2% chance to generate a seed.
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Re: [2.0.32] Possible yumako tree seed rate issue

Post by Broken_splitter »

Nemoricus wrote: Thu Feb 13, 2025 1:55 pm No, it means that, every time the recipe runs, it has a 2% chance to generate a seed.
Well it's unplayable then. Should be fixed asap
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Re: [2.0.32] Possible yumako tree seed rate issue

Post by NineNine »

Nemoricus wrote: Thu Feb 13, 2025 1:55 pm
Broken_splitter wrote: My observations suggest otherwise.
Recipe does not contains words like "average", "approximately", "maybe" or something like this, 2% rate means exactly 1 seed per 50 fruits
No, it means that, every time the recipe runs, it has a 2% chance to generate a seed.
That's a great way to explain it!
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Re: [2.0.32] Possible yumako tree seed rate issue

Post by NineNine »

Broken_splitter wrote: Thu Feb 13, 2025 2:01 pm
Nemoricus wrote: Thu Feb 13, 2025 1:55 pm No, it means that, every time the recipe runs, it has a 2% chance to generate a seed.
Well it's unplayable then. Should be fixed asap
Hahahahaha! Have fun!
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Re: [2.0.32] Possible yumako tree seed rate issue

Post by Nemoricus »

Broken_splitter wrote: Thu Feb 13, 2025 2:01 pm
Nemoricus wrote: Thu Feb 13, 2025 1:55 pm No, it means that, every time the recipe runs, it has a 2% chance to generate a seed.
Well it's unplayable then. Should be fixed asap
There are many recipes in Space Age that involve probabilities.
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Re: Possible yumako tree seed rate issue

Post by Nosferatu »

You need to use a bio chamber.
This will give you 50% productivity bonus and your problem will disappear.
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Re: Possible yumako tree seed rate issue

Post by NineNine »

Nosferatu wrote: Thu Feb 13, 2025 2:38 pm You need to use a bio chamber.
This will give you 50% productivity bonus and your problem will disappear.
To be fair, you have to spend a good time on Gleba before you can even make biochambers. Before you get to biochambers, though, you can do what I've hinted at, and one person mentioned in this thread, already.
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Re: Possible yumako tree seed rate issue

Post by Muche »

Based on this test contraption, it takes on the order of ten thousands of finished crafts for the seeds ratio to stabilize.
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Re: Possible yumako tree seed rate issue

Post by NineNine »

Muche wrote: Thu Feb 13, 2025 4:15 pm Based on this test contraption, it takes on the order of ten thousands of finished crafts for the seeds ratio to stabilize.
Technically, you're almost right... The more fruits you process, the more likely it is that the total will approach 2% producing seeds, but the less likely it is that you will actually get to to *exactly* 2%.

You have a 2% chance of getting seeds every single time that you process a fruit. You could get to 2% of seeds being produced with any number of fruits processed. You could potentially have exactly 2 seeds produced out of only 100 fruits processed. You could have exactly 20 seeds produced out of 1000 fruits processed.

But, at the end of the day, you're more likely to have somewhere close to 2% of seeds produced the more fruits that you process.
And in the short term, the less likely you are to be near 2%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers
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Re: Possible yumako tree seed rate issue

Post by Broken_splitter »

Muche wrote: Thu Feb 13, 2025 4:15 pm Based on this test contraption, it takes on the order of ten thousands of finished crafts for the seeds ratio to stabilize.
With constant fruit count flow (from box) it is ok, but the tree count decreases each time seed was delayed, less trees - less fruits - less seeds, so you can never farm 200 trees at all
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