Nullius, latest patch broke Asteroid Mining?

[fusion_future]

I launched my first ever asteroid miner in a rocket and got nothing. Double checked the silo, insertor, and chest. I launched a second one and again nothing. I'm assuming there's a 100% chance to get one of the six resource guide drones?

[Anachrony]

There isn't a 100% chance. The odds add up to 100%, but are independent of one another. There's a chance you could get unlucky on each independent roll and get nothing. There's also a chance you could get very lucky and get all of them. There's a 1% chance that your very first asteroid miner gets both uranium and copper, for instance (10% chance each).

This randomness is a built in mechanic for recipes. It's just how random recipe results are implemented, not a choice by the mod. Over the long run it should balance out so it doesn't really matter. But in the short term it's a crap shoot.

[fusion_future]

There isn't a 100% chance. The odds add up to 100%, but are independent of one another. There's a chance you could get unlucky on each independent roll and get nothing. There's also a chance you could get very lucky and get all of them. There's a 1% chance that your very first asteroid miner gets both uranium and copper, for instance (10% chance each).

This randomness is a built in mechanic for recipes. It's just how random recipe results are implemented, not a choice by the mod. Over the long run it should balance out so it doesn't really matter. But in the short term it's a crap shoot.

Figured I had bad luck so I launched another two and got nothing. Four launches and nothing. Am I just super unlucky?

[Anachrony]

The odds of getting 0 result from an asteroid miner 1 is just under 1/3. The odds of doing it 4 times in a row are just over 1%, comparable to the odds of getting both a uranium and copper on your first launch. 1% chances do happen sometimes. About 1% of the time.

[fusion_future]

After the 6th launch I finally got a guide drone. Roughly speaking, going off the info you provided that was a .0014 chance of happening (1/3)^6. Nothing like starting off with bad variance, though this is an interesting game mechanic. Thanks!