Increase Gleba seed production chance

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BlueTemplar
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Re: Increase Gleba seed production chance

Post by BlueTemplar »

Still, 2 mk1 normal quality modules is going to be +8% productivity, which I assume is going to feel pretty miserable compared to the +50% of Biochambers ?
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Re: Increase Gleba seed production chance

Post by mrvn »

BlueTemplar wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2024 12:39 pm
Still, 2 mk1 normal quality modules is going to be +8% productivity, which I assume is going to feel pretty miserable compared to the +50% of Biochambers ?
Totally. But gaining 8% seeds is a big step up from 0% gain and loosing it all due to a streak of bad luck.

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WeirdConstructor
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Re: Increase Gleba seed production chance

Post by WeirdConstructor »

Honestly, giving the player a little nudge for this pitfall using tips & tricks does no harm. Even at 3% you eventually might run out.

I would've really appreciated it, as I already was busy wrapping my head around: enemies, planting, landfilling, recognizing where to build, what to make in what order, wondering about random attacks from spoiled eggs, what yelly and mash are for, how to make lots of nutrients and how to deal with spoilage. All under a rather weird kind of time pressure due to spoilage and not knowing how soon attacks going to start due to pollution.

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BlueTemplar
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Re: Increase Gleba seed production chance

Post by BlueTemplar »

Even at 3% you eventually might run out.
It's exactly the same ratio as using a Biochamber on 2% : technically possible, but extremely unlikely.
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Re: Increase Gleba seed production chance

Post by mrvn »

BlueTemplar wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2024 2:36 pm
Even at 3% you eventually might run out.
It's exactly the same ratio as using a Biochamber on 2% : technically possible, but extremely unlikely.
Unless it's in the first few loops talk about a once in a lifetime chance.

When tossing a coin and adding up the heads and tails the expectation is that after N tosses you have at some time had sqrt(N) more heads than tails. Meaning if you start with 1000 seeds than after a million cycles the farm is expected to have died due to a lack of seeds. The seed production is not really tossing a 50:50 coin but the expectations are basically the same. With a 2% chance and 1000 seeds your farm will generally die within a million loops of the recipe (with no rotten fruit).

At 3% your 1000 seeds will grow every time you flip tails. This takes it from a certainty to a (im)probability. Going back to the coin example you don't have to hit 1000 more heads than tails but (1000 + n / 100) more heads than tails in n tries. After 1000 tosses you only have like a 30% chance to be below 1000 seeds, after 2000 tosses only a 13% chance to be below 1000, after 3000 tosses 2%, after 4000 tosses 0.1%. (numbers not exact but show the order of magnitude of failure probability). And that is just the probability to have less seeds than you started with. not run out. So we are talking about millions of people playing millions of games and one of them will fail, maybe, on a Friday the 13th. And his PC will catch fire and the PSU will explode but he also wins the lottery and slips on a banana peel.

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