Factorio Forums

Quality 3 modules cannot be made quality in an electromagnetic plant on Gleba. See image, there are no speed modules in vicinity, and there should be a 13% quality rate, but there is a 0% quality rate with 40 samples. Statistically, this is impossible. Please test and fix.
Thank you,

I believe the chance of that happening is (1-0.13)^(40/1.5) ~ 2.4%. Quite unlikely, not impossible.

It is even more likely, since it's only 27 crafting cycles with the built in 50% productivity.

"Products finished" includes productivity extras

I'd rephrase it to "unlikely, but quite possible"

GrumpyJoe wrote: Sat Dec 21, 2024 10:02 am It is even more likely, since it's only 27 crafting cycles with the built in 50% productivity.

"Products finished" includes productivity extras

I'd rephrase it to "unlikely, but quite possible"

That productivity bonus is already included in Muche's calculation.

But yeah, that's probability for you. In the long run it will even out, but long streaks can and will happen.

Premu wrote: Sat Dec 21, 2024 11:27 am
That productivity bonus is already included in Muche's calculation.

Im not someone who recognises what's what in a math formula, but I saw the 40.

I'm pretty sure that upcycling always happens for both items when prod+quality kicks in, therefore I'd calculate with crafting cycles, not total items gained.

Would need a longer explanation if I took a wrong turn in my brain



Just spotted the division by 1.5
So yeah, pretty accurate. I can calculate the 27 in my head, the 26.666 will be accurate enough for 1000s of cycles